Post-reflective Take on Benfica's João Neves

For the full version with images, embedded tweets, and visual breakdowns, visit BallerzBantz.

Two days ago, I wrote about the importance of reflecting while scouting and why it's important to re-visit projections – and the chain of inferences behind them.

Today, I'll share a condensed version of my reflections around Benfica's João Neves using the prescribed guiding questions in that essay.

§ 01About João

João Neves is a Portuguese midfielder born on September 27, 2004, in Faro, Portugal. He began his football journey at Casa Benfica Tavira before joining the Benfica academy in 2016 – debuted for the first team in January 1, 2023.

Height and Physical Profile: 174 cm. Built. Dynamic turner once he gets low and sets hands into motion. Great balance and pivot under pressure. Tremendous intensity in all his duels.

This next section will cover my first impression: my first take. The one after will cover reflections and subsequent change to my projections.

§ 02Response to guide questions on [Experience]:

(Archive from 17 November, 2023)

What do I already know about a player/role/region?

• Lightweight but mobile
• Quick – maybe hasty – to release the ball
• Follows up forward passes with runs in-behind
• Portuguese players generally strike the ball well – Joao Neves does too.

Where did I get the data from?

• Two full match compilations. One on Twitter. One on Youtube.
• Read several glowing remarks about him online, but came out unshaken till I saw myself.

Did I arrive at these conclusions myself or rely on another's inference?

• My conclusions were, at least at that time, contrary to public opinion and the views of my small network of scouts.

§ 03Response to guide questions on [Reflection]:

(Archive from 7 May, 2024)

Did I make any projections?

• Yes.

Has it yielded yet?

• Uncertain. In the meantime, I have already recalibrated my projection.

If not, what kind(s) of error did you make?

• A logic error:

Then, revisit old footage and evidence you considered to find where you might have missed the loop.

• I maintain that the perception of João Neves's aerial dominance is exaggerated by his stature: good for his height but average overall. He does well dealing with 2nd balls, average or a non-dueler on 1st contact, and a below-average aerial cover in set-pieces.
• Great sense of tempo – when to release, with how much vim, and when to intercede for teammates.
• High creative ceiling: sees passes and opportunities outside the usual range. Executes some with unconventional releases too: outside foot, clipped, after a dribble. These balls are often matched with runs by his teammates, suggesting a profound trust in João's ability.
• While his build and frame might suggest a poker-tackler – João's got a knack for gathering the ball after he commits.
• Especially because of his high offensive ceiling – albeit only seen in flashes at the moment – and the supreme intensity of actions João is one you could build a Champions League midfield around.

The lists and responses in this essay are non-exhaustive.

I'm curious - For the folks who've followed / scouted Benfica's Joao Neves. What're the tickers for you?
Given the difference between my appraisal and folks + institutions I trust, I'm trying to unravel any possible blindspots in how I assess midfielders.
No success so far.
— Joel A. A. (@joeladejola) May 7, 2024

A tweet I made post-reflection