Research
STATSWING publications are applied research on football decision-making: measurement frameworks, recruitment confidence, transfer prediction, and the mechanics that shape player assessment. They turn analytical gaps into usable methods for clubs, operators, and people trying to reason better about football decisions.
Contested Aerial Opportunities: Redefining How We Measure Aerial Play
Aerial duel statistics structurally miscount roughly 80% of contested aerial situations. This paper proposes a new measurement framework — Contested Aerial Opportunities — that captures what existing aerial-duel counts overlook.
Epistemic Certainty in Recruitment: What Football's Confidence Infrastructure Conceals
Football's confidence infrastructure — the chain of metrics, models, shortlists, and recommendations behind a recruitment decision — has never been independently audited. This paper proposes an epistemic disclosure framework for the people who buy and use that infrastructure.
The Execution Layer: Why Transfer Prediction Ignores Mechanics
Transfer prediction operates on a single analytical layer. Mechanics data exists — but the products that use it do not. This paper documents why the gap persists and what a mechanics-aware prediction stack would look like.